2012, China's economy is facing a complicated situation, in both exports and investment growth may decline in the case, whether domestic consumption to power, will become an economic "steady growth" key.
Expert analysis, with the ending of the original policy to stimulate consumption, future consumption is expected to focus on environmental protection and other hot new products and cultural tourism and other service formats, and income distribution reforms, improve the consumption environment and consumption tax reduction will be an important the starting point.
How much change in consumer focus
2011 is the "second five" first year, consumption of urban and rural residents continue to maintain rapid growth, the Commerce Department is expected to reach 18 trillion yuan, an increase of 17%. Among these, cars and home appliances are the two pillars.
However, key tasks in 2012, commercial work, there is no reference to stimulate car consumption. CITIC Securities auto analyst Xuying Bo said: "car for a huge role in boosting social spending, but nearly two-year high growth has brought many negative issues, such as traffic congestion, energy shortage and environmental pollution in 2012 to encourage the automotive industry as a whole policy basically impossible, but does not rule out the introduction of structural incentives. "silent encourage automobile consumption, perhaps because the hearts of the industry trend bottom.
Consumer gets hot
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After the first round of the incentives, China's automobile and home appliances and other pillars of the future will gradually move toward consumption-based stable. New consumption hot spot who gets to become a topic of public concern.
"Consumption of energy saving products to support research policy," National Business conference in the industry and who expressed some hot.
In fact, consumption of energy saving products in recent years is no longer an advocate, and has become under the spontaneous behavior of economic levers. The main factors behind the drive from two aspects: First, the factor price reform steadily. Natural gas price change has recently launched the pilot, the industry is expected to decline as the level of inflation this year, water, electricity and other resource products price change will start sequence. As the prices of resource products long-term trend, saving energy efficiency is quite impressive.
Second, cost-effective energy saving product itself continues to increase. Such as rare-earth prices fell late last year, would lower the production cost of energy-saving lamps, and will ban incandescent lamps for energy-saving free market. With the new energy automotive technology matures, only a general increase mileage, one hundred kilometers to spend even more than ordinary cars have an advantage. Coupled with financial subsidies and tax law in the new travel concessions, from concept to reality than a dream.
Service consumption is another big thing. Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science said: "The VAT levy business tax reform pilot started, can promote our services more segmentation and specialization, in order to attract more people spending."
Cultural tourism consumption is the consumption of heavy service. China Tourism Research Institute, said Dai Bin, China's tourism consumption in 2011 exceeded 2 trillion yuan is expected to become the driving social spending "core strength" is one. 2012 will continue to maintain a rapid development, the total revenue expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan.
What consumer breakthrough
Spending power, consumption, environment and consumer policy is to expand the consumption of the three starting point. Among them, the business sector to improve the consumption environment is an important duty.
National business work conference: "depth large-scale retail enterprises to suppliers of special rectification non-compliance fees, retailers and suppliers to promote the harmonious development of relations."
Experts in the industry seems to do a good job circulation is the key to improving the consumption environment move. Smooth distribution channels, distribution cost reduction, more residents will stimulate current consumption.
The introduction of consumer policy involves a number of departments. In addition to the Ministry of Commerce of the relay policy, tax reform is a top priority, the consumption tax adjustment is a major part of this year.
State Administration of Taxation, Mr Xiao Jie has said that this year in the consumption tax, would be reasonable to adjust the tax rate structure and scope of the collection. At present, China's consumption tax levied on some goods such as tobacco, alcohol, automobiles, cosmetics, golf equipment and solid wood floors.
Clearly, the consumption capacity is a long process, depends on the income distribution system reform. At present, China's income distribution reform presents "provide low, and increase the expansion of the" situation, a series of actions have been started. For example, last year launched a tax adjustment and the poor standard of this year will start up, have contributed to the growth of middle-income class.
The implementation of structural tax cuts for middle-income groups also create a good environment for the cultivation. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, Vice President Cai said that the direct effects of structural tax profit to the government enterprise, can indirectly increase the income of workers.
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2012/01/09
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